KTFA (Samson) – Dinar Detectives Update

KTFA (Samson) - Dinar Detectives Update

Samson: Vietnam: Credit score progress of 14% a possible goal for 2019

2nd February, 2019

The nation’s credit score progress goal of 14 per cent set for this yr, the identical fee as final yr, was affordable and achievable, economists stated.

Nguyễn Đức Thành, Director of the Vietnam Institute for Financial and Coverage Analysis underneath the Vietnam Nationwide College – Hanoi’s College of Economics and Enterprise, stated credit score enlargement is predicted to stay secure this yr at round 14 per cent.

In accordance with Thành, there isn’t a purpose for a better credit score progress this yr when the financial system continues to be gaining a very good progress fee while not having capital.

Thành defined that beforehand, Việt Nam’s financial progress typically relied closely on elevated credit score, nevertheless, issues have modified. Now, the financial system can develop with out robust lending, notably when the supporting business in addition to the providers and agricultural sectors have gotten extra engaging to overseas buyers. “When credit score use improves, there ought to be a greater credit score progress coverage in the long run,” Thành steered.
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Samson:  Vietnam : Securities, bond markets set for robust 2019

31st January, 2019

SSC chairman Trần Văn Dũng. He predicts the inventory market will proceed its robust improvement this yr because of constructive macroeconomic fundamentals

Trần Văn Dũng, chairman of the State Securities Fee, speaks to Vietnam Information Company concerning the securities market’s prospects this yr following adverse progress in 2018.
What’s your evaluation of the dimensions and high quality of the inventory and bond markets?

The Vietnamese financial system developed strongly in 2018 with macroeconomic indicators similar to GDP progress, import-export turnover, inflation, the trade fee, rate of interest and finances spending assembly or beating targets set by the Nationwide Meeting.

The securities market, regardless of seeing a robust decline because of the volatility of worldwide inventory markets, recorded will increase in market capitalisation and buying and selling liquidity. It remained a key fund-raising channel for personal companies and made nice contributions to general financial improvement.

The inventory market worth reached VNĐ3.96 quadrillion (US$170.three billion) in 2018, up 12.7 per cent year-on-year. The determine was equal to 72 per cent of the nation’s complete GDP and outperformed the NA goal set for 2020 (70 per cent). The typical buying and selling worth of shares and fund certificates was VNĐ6.55 trillion in every session, up 29 per cent year-on-year, and complete worth of newly-listing shares gained 12.Eight per cent to VNĐ1.21 quadrillion.

Regardless of current progress, the dimensions of the Vietnamese inventory market was smaller than these of different regional markets corresponding to Thailand ($548 billion), Malaysia ($456 billion) and Singapore ($787 billion). In every of these nations, the worth of the inventory market was greater than 100 per cent of its complete GDP.

There was additionally a robust improvement on the Vietnamese bond market in 2018. There have been 573 listed bonds with complete worth of VNĐ1.12 quadrillion, up 10.four per cent year-on-year. Of the determine, the worth of presidency bonds (G-bonds) accounted for 98 per cent of the full and the remaining have been company bonds. The dimensions of the Vietnamese bond market was equal to 35.2 per cent of Việt Nam’s complete GDP, which was additionally modest in comparison with different regional and worldwide bond markets reminiscent of Malaysia (97.7 per cent), Singapore (86 per cent), the Republic of Korea (125.7 per cent) and Japan (211.four per cent).

What alternatives and challenges face the Vietnamese securities market in 2019?

We have now to concentrate on exterior elements that would influence the home securities market although it’s predicted to obtain intense help from the steadiness of the macroeconomy and final yr’s market efficiency.

Considerations embrace the unpredictability of the US-China commerce tensions which will have adverse results on international commerce, financial system and capital stream, and the upcoming rate of interest will increase of the Federal Reserve, which can increase capital bills on overseas buyers, forcing them to run away from rising markets like Việt Nam.

Relating to inner elements, there’s a massive probability for the Vietnamese securities market this yr. The event, administration and operation of the market have gained particular consideration from the Authorities, the Prime Minister and officers.

At a Authorities assembly final yr, the Prime Minister emphasised the significance of institutional reform and the event of the personal sector. The co-working of ministries and sectors with the mixture of fiscal and financial insurance policies has proved efficient and helped stabilise the macroeconomy and the securities market.

The Authorities lately issued Decision 01/NQ-CP, which mentions the additional improvement of the securities market via new monetary and securities merchandise, and the equitisation, restructuring and itemizing of State-owned enterprises.

The event of the personal sector, enchancment of the enterprise surroundings and enhancement of SOE equitisation in 2019 are anticipated to offer the securities market with an enormous load of high-quality choices.

As well as, the Vietnamese financial system is forecast to carry out higher in 2019 as it’s lifted by the profound fundamentals achieved in earlier years. Price range spending, rates of interest and inflation are being stored at acceptable ranges and the continued improvement of the amended Regulation on Securities is predicted to assist enhance the market within the close to future.

Underneath the administration of the Authorities, the Ministry of Finance and the State Securities Fee (SSC), with the presence and participation of market members, I consider the Vietnamese securities market will seize its alternatives to foster future progress. The SSC will proceed co-operating with different ministries and businesses to create a great authorized system to lure overseas capital to the market.

What insurance policies has the SSC adopted to information market improvement in 2019?

To form a secure, sustainable and environment friendly securities market in 2019, the SSC will implement each long-term and short-term options to make it more healthy and stronger. In 2019, the highest precedence is to get the amended Regulation on Securities and associated directions authorised, corresponding to the educational doc on dealing with securities violations authorised by the Nationwide Meeting.

The SSC will even improve the restructuring of the securities market, full  duties to determine the Vietnam Inventory Trade, and restructure the operation of brokerage and asset administration companies by decreasing their numbers and enhancing their high quality. The SSC may also promote options to improve Việt Nam from a “frontier market” to an “rising market” by the requirements set by Morgan Stanley Capital Worldwide (MSCI) and the Monetary Occasions Inventory Trade (FTSE).

The insurance policies will concentrate on luring overseas capital and overseas buyers, resolving issues with overseas possession caps by issuing the revised Regulation on Securities, and creating further securities merchandise to attract extra participation of overseas buyers out there. The SSC will even work with market members and different authorities businesses to enhance transparency, and scale back administrative procedures to make buying and selling quicker and extra exact for overseas buyers, saving them time, effort and expense.

The fee will co-operate with scores organisations, together with the MSCI, to replace details about the Vietnamese securities market and supply worldwide organisations with a clearer, extra insightful outlook of the Vietnamese market.

As well as, the SSC will promote the Vietnamese securities market as a clear and sustainable entity to worldwide buyers and scores organisations.

In 2019, the SSC will proceed working with native bourses to launch coated warrant, g-bond futures and different inventory index futures like the present 4 VN30 Index-referred futures.   LINK

Samson:  Vietnam : Central financial institution to ease lending charges

2nd February, 2019

The State Financial institution of Vietnam (SBV) shopping for internet US$four billion in January could be the strategy to decrease Vietnamese đồng lending charges.

The info was introduced on the Authorities’s month-to-month assembly on Thursday.

To realize such a end result, the central financial institution in late November 2018 bought dollar futures that may be delivered in late January 2019 to boost the market provide of dollars, vneconomy.vn reported on Friday.

Then on the primary working day of 2019 (January 2), the central financial institution for the primary time in a yr raised its buying price by VNĐ500 to VNĐ23,200 for a greenback from the last-day price of 2018.

As of December 31, 2018, the buying fee for a US greenback set by the SBV was VNĐ22,700. The speed was minimize by VNĐ10 on February Eight, 2018.

Along with the 2 technical measures, the central financial institution additionally elevated the hole between Vietnamese đồng and greenback rates of interest on the interbank market, making Vietnamese đồng extra engaging for financial savings and thus stability the overseas change fee with the greenback.

After a month, the central financial institution was capable of lure an enormous quantity of US dollars for its reserves, proving the availability of overseas foreign money in Viet Nam had been nice and consolidating and serving to rework part of overseas foreign money held within the financial system in recent times.

However SBV might not cease shopping for dollars from the market, not solely to extend its overseas reserves but in addition to decrease the đồng lending charges.

Shopping for $four billion means SBV needed to inject an enormous quantity of Vietnamese đồng into the market, which might assist stability the market demand-supply in the course of the Tet interval – the height season for making funds – and create further provide of money for lenders – who accepted mortgages from debtors.

Native business banks have lately minimize their đồng-based lending charges. For instance, the Joint Inventory Business Financial institution for Overseas Commerce of Vietnam (Vietcombank) on January 9 minimize its lending price for short-term loans by zero.5 per cent to six per cent.

Vietnamese đồng-based rates of interest have been stored extra engaging than the dollar-based ones, elevating expectations that money would movement again into business banks after the pageant was over, and thus, easing the lending charges amongst business banks.

Between late 2018 and late January 2019, đồng-based interbank provided charges stored growing to five.19 per cent per yr, twice the dollar-based provided fee on the identical market.
Between business banks and particular person and institutional shoppers, đồng-based provided rates of interest confirmed indicators of accelerating to eight.5-Eight.7 per cent every year for long-term financial savings.

In 2018, many central banks needed to improve rates of interest and depreciate home currencies to cope with the stronger greenback and the outflow of overseas capital.

Throughout final yr, the worldwide markets turned used to the Federal Reserve’s price improve plan because it mirrored the “hawkish view” of Fed officers, strengthened the greenback towards different currencies and resulted within the outflow of overseas capital from rising markets.

On January 30, the Fed signalled it might cease elevating charges and international analysts noticed that could possibly be the top of the speed hike plan. And it might even imply the Fed would minimize charges if wanted.   LINK

Samson:  Vietnam to create beneficial circumstances for personal companies

seventh February, 2019

Vân Đồn Worldwide Airport, developed by personal Solar Group, was put into operation on December 30, 2018. Việt Nam will proceed to hasten efforts of enhancing the enterprise local weather to advertise the event of the personal sector

Việt Nam will proceed to hasten efforts to enhance the enterprise local weather when it comes to high quality to create beneficial circumstances for the personal sector to play its position as a driver in selling speedy and sustainable financial progress.

The nation focused to have a million companies by 2020, of which, there can be plenty of giant personal firms who have been arising strongly in each home and worldwide markets in key sectors like manufacturing, aviation, finance and banking, agriculture and telecommunications.

In line with Nguyễn Xuân Thắng, Hồ Chí Minh Nationwide Academy of Politics, the personal sector was nonetheless dealing with difficulties in accessing assets, market alternatives and superior applied sciences.

President and CEO of Vietjet Nguyễn Thị Phương Thảo stated on the Việt Nam Financial Discussion board 2019 that Việt Nam in recent times had despatched a robust message about constructing a constructive authorities with open mechanisms for the personal sector.

Nevertheless, Thảo stated it was vital to hurry up the privatisation of State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the restructuring of the banking sector to minimise the adverse impacts on macro-finance and progress prospects.

Thảo additionally urged the Authorities to develop mechanisms and insurance policies to take advantage of assets of the personal sector for infrastructure improvement and allow them to understand alternatives from Business four.zero to reinforce productiveness.

The personal sector must be inspired to take part in what they might do properly, Thảo stated, stressing that non-public companies anticipated to have a good playground with different financial sectors.

Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc stated in a dialogue on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos that the personal financial sector was an essential driver for progress of Việt Nam amid an anticipated slow-down of the worldwide financial system.

Phúc added that attracting overseas direct funding along with enhancing linkage with the home sector additionally performed a big position in selling financial improvement.

Based on Ousmane Dione, World Financial institution Vietnam’s Nation Director, Việt Nam confronted a big alternative in upgrading its home worth contribution to seize the advantages of FDI inflows and international worth chains. This required enhancing linkages with the home financial system, he burdened.

Vũ Đại Thắng, Deputy Minister of Planning and Funding, stated that the aim of getting a million companies by 2020 was inside attain, given the efforts of enhancing the enterprise local weather.

The Ministry of Planning and Funding just lately made public a draft regulation to amend the Regulation on Funding and the Regulation on Enterprise, which aimed to create beneficial circumstances for the companies and personal sector to develop.

Việt Nam set objective of accelerating the contribution of the personal sector to the nation’s gross home product (GDP) to 50 per cent by 2020, 55 per cent by 2025 and 60-65 per cent by 2030. Yearly, the personal sector generated 1.2 million jobs and contributed 43 per cent to GDP.  LINK